Projection of Hypertension in the Philippines in the Year 2050: A Projection Study and Call-to-Action

Aim: To project the prevalence of hypertension in Philippines using the national survey data in the year 2020 to 2050.

Methods and results: Data from the 2018 National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) were utilized for the projection study. A spline regression, which utilizes a non-linear regression technique, estimated the missing data sets in the hypertension prevalence by age and sex from 1993 to 2018. Deaths from ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic kidney disease, and hypertensive heart disease taken from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were extrapolated from the hypertension prevalence. Hypertension prevalence remains high at 23%, with a 28% increase in the number of cases (24.28 million to 33.82 million) by 2050 given the population projection (101.60 million in 2015 to 142.10 million in 2050) and seriously affecting extremes of ages (early 20’s and 80’s). Deaths related to hypertension will increase more than double from ~90,000 in 2015 to ~210,000 due to ischemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease.

Conclusion: A significant increase in the burden of disease due to hypertension is foreseen in the next three decades. This call-to-action to legislate policies for systemic programs is urgent to decrease hypertension prevalence, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality.


Leilani B. Mercado-Asis, Alberto A. Atilano, Deborah Ignacia D. Ona, Dolores D. Bonzon, Gilbert A. Vilela, Carlos L. Chua, Alejandro F. Diaz, Benjamin A. Balmores Jr., Esperanza I. Cabral, Abdias V. Aquino, Dante D. Morales, Nelson S. Abelardo, Lynn A. Gomez, Raymond V. Oliva and Rafael R. Castillo

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